NFL Quarterback Contracts: How the 2022 Off-Season Affects the Future of Quarterback Contracts

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The 2022 off-season was filled with many significant changes including superstar wide receivers Devante Adams and Tyreek Hill being traded and signing market-shifting contracts. However, the moves that will have the most impact on the future of the NFL are the lucrative contracts signed by NFL quarterbacks that have the potential to reset the market.

Quarterbacks have notoriously been inclined to take “team-friendly deals” that allow their team to add players in free agency. The greatest quarterback of all time – Tom Brady – was well-known for doing this throughout his time in New England.[1] However, the market began to shift in 2020, when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year $450 Million extension.[2] Mahomes, arguably the best quarterback in the league, set the tone for the value of a quarterback. This was followed up a year later by Bills quarterback Josh Allen signing a 6-year, $258 Million contract.[3] However, what both contracts did not do was truly shift the quarterback market; both contracts, while trendsetting in value for the quarterback position, did not radically shift the market because the deals signed were not fully guaranteed. Both Allen and Mahomes’s contracts, while potentially worth the full $450M or $258M, are only guaranteed $140M and $150M respectively.[4] So, while teams may have paid more total money to quarterbacks after these deals were signed, they were able to keep the guaranteed amount to a manageable level that did not cripple the team’s salary cap situation.

This all changed in the 2022 off-season with Aaron Rogers' market-shifting contract. Rodgers, who was involved in numerous trade and retirement rumors throughout the offseason, signed a three-year extension worth roughly $151 Million. What made this deal market-shifting, however, was that the contract was completely guaranteed, and it set the benchmark for Average Annual Value (AAV) – which was a little over $50 Million.[5]

The second, and most ground-breaking, domino to fall was the contract Deshaun Watson signed after being traded by the Cleveland Browns. Watson, who has been mired in controversy after more than twenty accusations of sexual assault or sexual harassment[6], signed a 5-year extension worth $230 Million. On the surface, this deal does not seem that market-shifting – after all, it looks quite similar to the contract signed by Josh Allen a year before. However, Watson’s entire contract was fully guaranteed, meaning that he was owed all $230 Million, AND his AAV surpassed both Mahomes and Allen and was second behind Rodgers. While Watson certainly was a supremely talented quarterback in 2020, the fact that he was able to sign a fully guaranteed contract with an AAV of $46 Million after not playing for a year and being accused of sexual assault and harassment altered the market. This had an immediate effect on the contract renegotiations of quarterback contracts. Quarterbacks now have two new pieces of leverage to use – the AAV of Rodgers combined with a fully guaranteed deal like Watson’s – to negotiate free agent or contract extensions.

However, two new deals towards the end of the offseason offer a potential compromise – where players sign for a high AAV, yet their deals are not fully guaranteed. In late July, Kyler Murray signed a 5-year, $230 Million Contract with an AAV of $46 Million and only $190 Million guaranteed.[7] Additionally, right before the 2022-23 season began, newly acquired Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson also signed a 5-year extension, this one worth about $243 Million with an AAV of about $49 Million and only $161 Million of the $243M fully guaranteed.[8] While Wilson and Murray both jumped Watson in AAV, they also represented a potential market correction to the Deshaun Watson contract. Rather than sign quarterbacks to a contract that has both a high AAV and is fully guaranteed, NFL teams may try and view the Watson contract as an anomaly within the quarterback market and seek to sign quarterbacks to deals more like that of Murray and Wilson - where the AAV in the contract is high yet the contract is only 50-70% guaranteed - than the fully guaranteed deals that both Rodgers and Watson signed.

The 2023 offseason will be a good barometer for whether the quarterback market has shifted more towards a Kyler Murray/Russell Wilson-type deal, or if the early offseason contracts signed by Watson and Rodgers will set the tone. 2023 will also be informative because of the quarterbacks that are available to sign extensions. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert are both eligible to sign new deals with their teams this offseason, and there is an expectation that they will get deals done. The same goes for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who can sign a new deal after a breakout campaign this past season.[9] It can be expected that more than half of their total contract values will be guaranteed – as Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, and Murray all signed deals with more than 50% of their value guaranteed – but how much guaranteed will these quarterbacks demand? The most curious contract case will be that of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who was extension eligible last offseason but could not come to terms with the team. The Ravens reportedly offered Jackson a $250 million contract with $133 million guaranteed – in line with the Murray/Wilson contract in terms of guaranteed money – but that was rejected by Jackson.[10] Seemingly, Jackson preferred to sign a deal that mirrored the Watson contract rather than the Murray/Wilson one. However, after two years of season-ending injuries, it will be interesting to see how both sides approach extension talks this offseason.

My inclination for all four quarterbacks – all of whom are among the top 10 if not top-7 quarterbacks in the league – is that their teams will treat the Watson deal as an anomaly and negotiate accordingly. I believe the quarterbacks in question will sign extensions that individually set the market for AAV but look more like the deals Murray and Wilson signed rather than the Watson deal when it comes to guaranteed money. In Jackson’s case, the Ravens have indicated that they will negotiate with him this off-season, and I (as a biased Ravens fan) believe that they will come to terms on a deal. However, if they do not, the Ravens have two options: they could either franchise tag him and work on a deal, or they could franchise tag him and seek to trade him to a team that will meet his demands. I do not foresee those occurring, but they are on the table.

[1] Tom Brady Patriots Contracts Throughout The Years, NBC Sports

[2] Patrick Mahomes Contract Details, SPOTRAC

[3] Josh Allen Contract Details, SPOTRAC

[4] Quarterback Contracts, SPOTRAC

[5] Id.

[6] Deshaun Watson’s Sexual Assault Allegations, Explained, SBNation, James Dator

[7] Id. at 4.

[8] Russell Wilson Contract Details, SPOTRAC

[9] How Much Will Jalen Hurts’ Contract Extension Be Worth?, BOARDROOMTV, Anthony Puccio

[10]The Pulse: Lamar’s Curious Case, New NBA Mock and PaytonWatch, The Athletic, Chris Branch